Reopening stocks are set to stage a “monstrous rally” [this] week as cash on the sidelines continues to represent a “monster amount of buying power,” Tom Lee said in an interview with CNBC's Scott Wapner on Friday.
The reopening stocks, also called “epicenter stocks” by Lee, are stocks that should benefit from a steady reopening of the US economy, and include the travel, leisure, and hospitality sectors.
Part of Lee's conclusion that reopening stocks are set for a big move in outperformance sometime [this] week stems from an analysis his team at Fundstrat conducted.
According to the research firm, it took 20 days between a peak in COVID-19 cases in late April and a rally in value stocks to occur, as investors needed time to digest the news and see if the worst was really over before they committed their money to beaten-down stocks that rely on an opened-up economy.
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“If we look at the current context, daily cases peaked July 27. The 20th day would be August 14 … so I think it will happen next week and we will see a violent rotation,” Lee argued.
Lee also pointed to Friday's jobs report, which showed a 50% retracement of jobs lost since the pandemic began. That to him signaled that the economy is healthy and recovering.
“I think the economy's healthy, [so] these cyclical stocks could rally big,” Lee said, adding that the last rotation into cyclical stocks sparked a 30% rally in the downtrodden sectors.
Lee said investors need to realize that a successful COVID-19 vaccine or cure would mitigate a lot of permanent changes and risks to the economy that many have accepted as the new normal over the past few months.
“That makes these stocks vulnerable to a massive, massive upside re-rate,” Lee said.
So, what companies should investors look at if reopening stocks are poised for a massive rally [this] week?
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According to Lee, they're Target, Best Buy, Pulte, Borg Warner, AutoNation, and Mosaic.
“It's going to be what people probably perceive as high-quality companies that just got absolutely obliterated that could make a big bounce,” Lee explained.
Finally, Lee said that cash on the sidelines is something investors need to keep an eye on when considering the upside potential left in the stock market.
“I think there's so much cash on the sidelines still,” according to Lee, who pointed to sentiment readings and conversations with some of Fundstrat's clients who are still cautiously positioned as evidence.
Lee added that there's still as much as $5 trillion in money market funds, which represents a “monster amount of buying power” for stocks.
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