Big news came out of the energy industry this week, from the Energy Information Administration: in September, the US became a net exporter of petroleum products. It was the first month, since the government began keeping oil industry records in 1949, that the US exported more oil than it imported. The news was hailed as a milestone for the American oil industry.
And a milestone it was. The US overall exported 89,000 barrels more than it brought in, a fitting situation for the world’s largest oil producer. In terms of total production, the US has held the leading spot for the last six years, and at almost 18 million barrels per day accounts for some 18% of world oil output. The immense Permian Basin of West Texas – the world’s second largest oil field – accounts for much of the production increase.
While American oil – and natural gas – are the direct beneficiaries of the North American oil boom, the energy industry generally shows great potential for investors. Extraction from previously marginal oil patches and moves toward clean energy, bring with them a notoriously high overhead, and companies are always keen to attract new investment. After all, a steady flow of investor cash helps pay for the new infrastructure that generate the cash flow and profits – which in turn help bring in more investors. Many energy companies try to speed that process along by offering high dividends, sharing those profits with their investors.
We’ve used the TipRanks Stock Screener to find three energy companies – and not just in the oil business – with buy ratings, solid upside potential, and those huge dividend yields. All three of these stocks are yielding investors more than 11% in dividend paybacks.
Kimbell Royalty Partners (KRP)
The North American oil boom is real, and the oil and gas exploration and drilling companies have been cashing in big time. There was a joke 40 years ago: How do you tell a pigeon from a Texas oilman? The pigeon can still leave a deposit on a new Mercedes. That’s not a joke anymore, since Texas oilmen are back in a big way.
Kimbell Royalty is one of the winners. The company is major player in the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford formations in Texas, as well as the Bakken formation of the Dakotas and the Appalachian oil fields. The company’s major area of operations is the Permian Basin, where it controls over 40,000 rigs – some 43% of its total active wells.
KRP’s success can be gauged by its record high revenue in Q3 2019, reported earlier this month. The company showed $33 million in revenues, a 79% gain year-over-year. The gains came after the acquisition of competitors Haymaker and Phillips. Despite the boost in revenues, however, KRP saw a big net loss for the quarter, of 73 cents per share. The company chalked up the loss to a one-time impairment expense charge incurred in a full-cost ceiling test.
Kimbell has been using its cash flow to fund a generous dividend of 42 cents quarterly – or $1.68 per share annualized. The yield is 11.7%, more than 5x the average on the S&P 500 index. The company has been raising its dividend over the past year.
Analyst Gordon Douthat of Wells Fargo, noted the company’s secure position moving forward in his recent report on KRP. The analyst wrote, “Since going public in 2017, KRP has been an aggressive consolidator in the highly fragmented minerals space, having almost tripled its net acreage position and more than tripling its production over this time period, and we expect M&A activity to remain a critical component of the company’s strategy going forward.”
Douthat set a $20 price target on KRP to go with his Buy rating, implying a 32% upside to the stock.
KRP’s Strong Buy consensus rating is based on 4 positive reviews in the last few weeks. The company has been attracting the bulls recently, and the average price target, $20, is in line with Atcheson’s report.
Gaslog Partners (GLOP)
Oil isn’t the only resource pumped out the wells in Texan and other oilfields. Natural gas, and natural gas liquids, are also found in abundance, sometimes in even greater quantities than the petroleum. Gas is in high demand, as a cleaner alternative to oil-based fuels. Gas is used for cooking, heating, and even as an alt-fuel for cars. To get the gas to market, however, requires a specialized infrastructure network, and that is where Gaslog Partners comes in.
This company owns and operates liquified natural gas (LNG) carriers, the specialized ships that move gas and gas products, in a pressurized liquid form, across the world’s oceans. The company is 100% owner of 15 LNG carriers, engaged in both active transport and offshore storage.
In the recent earnings report for third quarter CY2019, Gaslog showed a modest revenue beat, as the $96.5 million print was 1.3% higher than the analyst forecast. EPS missed, however, coming in at 43 cents against the 50-cent estimates. Distributable cash flow, however, was up 26% year-over-year, a metric that helps explain the 55-cent quarterly dividend. At $2.20 annually, this makes the dividend yield an impressive 15.1%. Compared to the S&P average of just ~2%, and you can easily see the attraction for investors.
Jonathan Chappell, 4-star analyst from Evercore ISI, sees plenty of potential for GLOP to maintain its current performance levels. He said of the company, as the end of October, “The extensive fixed-rate time-charter coverage of its fleet plus the low breakeven levels associated with its well managed capital structure has enabled GLOP to increase its annual distribution by an average of 8% over the last 5 years and should now provide it with the cash flow stability to maintain the current run rate even as legacy charters expire into next year…”
Chappell puts a Buy rating on GLOP, and his $24 price target implies a high 65% upside.
Jefferies analyst Randy Giveans is also bullish on GLOP, as he sees the LNG industry generally as a good position. In his recent note on the stock he writes, “We believe the fundamentals for the LNG shipping market will continue to improve significantly as LNG shipping demand growth outpaces LNG shipping supply growth throughout the coming quarters and years.” Giveans sees a $26 price target for GLOP, indicative of a 78% upside.
We have seen the bullish opinions; the bears are cautious due to short-term churn in the LNG carrier industry as four of GLOP’s ship charters will be expiring in coming months. The uncertainty has not hurt views of the company’s profitability, however.
Indeed, it’s clear that Wall Street is largely divided between the bulls and the fence sitters when it comes to Gaslog’s market opportunity. That said, the consensus average price target points to $23.25, or nearly 67% upside potential for the stock. This suggests that by consensus expectations, for now, the bulls win on GLOP.
Genesis Energy LP (GEL)
With the third company on our list, we leave the US and head Down Under, where Genesis is the leading power provider on the North Island of New Zealand. Genesis is the country’s largest electricity and gas retailer, and serves more than 650,000 customers.
Genesis generates the power it sells at a series of conventional power generation plants and hydroelectric facilities, totaling over 1,600 megawatts of output. The company is also invested in clean energy, and is involved in the development of two large wind farms.
The third quarter was difficult for Genesis, as the company saw year-over-year declines in both revenues and earnings. The top line came in at $621.7 million, down 14% from the estimates, while EPS posted a loss of 1 cent per share, 12 cents below the forecasts. Cash flow was also down, at $136.1 million compared to $156.7 million in the year-ago quarter – but despite the drop, cash flow was enough to maintain the company generous dividend of 55 cents per share. At $2.20 annualized, this gives the dividend a high yield of 11.6%. That’s almost 6x higher than the average yield on of S&P listed companies, but more importantly, Genesis has been growing that dividend slowing but steadily for the last two years.
TJ Schultz, a 5-star analyst with RBC Capital, is bullish on GEL, seeing the company as generally poised to deliver results. He writes of the stock, “We remain constructive on GEL despite some earnings volatility quarter to quarter… We think GEL is positioned to deliver positive FCF in 2020, which continues our view on meaningful de-levering over the next several years…”
Schultz’s price target on GEL, $25, implies an upside of 31%, backing up his Buy rating.
Overall, the company’s high expenditures in clean energy investments, and its recent earnings volatility, are reasons for caution, but its dominant position in the New Zealand market puts it in a good position.
TipRanks suggests optimism with some caution baked into expectations when it comes to Wall Street’s majority perspective on this power stock. Out of 5 analysts tracked in the last 3 months, analysts are split between the bulls and the sidelined on GEL: 3 rate a Buy, while 2 issue a Hold. The 12-month average price target stands at $22.20, marking about 20% in upside potential from where the stock is currently trading.
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