Summary
– The stock market has consolidated mostly in a range since January 2018 and is now breaking out.
– While there is still the ever-present group of market watchers who think that stocks will crash, more and more traders are seeing the possibility of a big post-breakout rally.
– Is this kind of rally realistic? Or should we be more cautious?
The S&P 500 reached 3000 this week for the first time, and the broad stock market is breaking out from a range that has lasted from January 2018 – present. While there is still the ever-present group of market watchers who think that stocks will crash, more and more traders are seeing the possibility of a big post-breakout rally.
As I said last week, I think a middle ground scenario is more likely. This is just a normal rally towards the end of a bull market. A massive breakaway rally that will last years is unlikely, but neither is an imminent crash. Today is not “just like 2000 and 2007” and nor is it “just like 2002 and 2009”…
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